> Social Issues - on 25/10/2007

Turkmenistan’s new elites

Report of the Project on Emerging Actors, published in partnership with the Thomas More Institute and the Multipol Information Network, www.multipol.org. Available in English and in French.

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Solid: that is how the Turkmen regime appeared in the aftermath of the transition of power that followed the death of Saparmurat Niyazov on 21 December 2006. The dictator, who died of cardiac arrest at the age of 66, had ruled with an iron fist over the Central Asian former Soviet republic since 1985. For more than a decade, he had undertaken a series of major purges, crushing any seeds of opposition to his now autocratic power. He personally came to embody the regime, having built a maniacal personality cult around himself. However, despite the death of the man who insisted on being called Turkmenbashi, Father of all Turkmen, the country did not descend into chaos.

The regime remained in control of the situation at all times. It is possible that President Niyazov handed over power to Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who announced the passing of Turkmenbashi the Great on television on the morning of his death, which occurred at 1.10 a.m. on 21 December 2006 according to the official version of events, and was to head the committee organizing the funeral, which took place three days later. Regardless of whether power was handed over to Berdymukhamedov or whether he seized it, Sovietologists and Kremlinologists immediately understood that he would be the future president of the Republic of Turkmenistan. A man from Turkmenbashi’s inner circle had taken his place - the regime was not dead.

This solidity of the Turkmen regime suggests that its evolution will also depend on its elites. Indeed, Turkmenistan’s five million citizens are not involved in the political administration of the country; the opposition, or those who claim to represent it, are not in a position to offer a political alternative; all power lies in the hands of the new president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who was appointed head of State on 14 February 2007. However, the President has surrounded himself with trusted colleagues and allows a degree of independence, at least executively, to technocrats.

This study is intended to examine the functioning of the new Administration in Turkmenistan. Although he has adopted numerous political ‘instruments’ favoured by Turkmenbashi, which makes a democratic approach unlikely, President Berdymukhamedov seems committed to opening up his country to a greater extent. Whether in terms of bringing the national education system in line with internationally recognized systems or re-establishing diplomatic and economic relations with the rest of the world, particularly the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the West, cooperation with Turkmenistan is increasing, particularly as the country’s needs are considerable. There is a severe shortage of qualified people – managers, engineers and technicians – at a time when the State wishes to move towards rationalizing its economy and more effectively exploiting its natural resources.

However, Turkmenistan must be able to accept and, moreover, initiate the reforms necessary to achieve economic and political development, on a more harmonious and sound basis. In this connection, the role of the elites will prove crucial, particularly that of future administrators, entrepreneurs and engineers: future actors who will be responsible for monitoring and executing change. In that sense, the young people of Turkmenistan are of strategic interest.

Who will be the future managers and technicians of Turkmenistan? How do these young people perceive the developing new administration? What can they contribute to the country?

But the immediate priority is not to undertake a political examination of the new government in Turkmenistan. It is not our intention to identify more democratic alternatives to the current regime. It seems much more relevant and in keeping with the socio-political circumstances in Turkmenistan to assess the country’s efficiency and consider means of improving it. An in-depth analysis of the political mechanisms that seem to underpin the new administration of power in Turkmenistan will be followed by a summary of the expectations and opinions of young educated Turkmen from the emerging middle class, which represents one of the most promising talent pools for Turkmen development and expresses the hopes of a generation.

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