The new strategic East for Turkey

Thomas More Institute #Turkey 2022 Research Program

May 2022 • Research Program •


The Turkey Project, led by Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, aims to analyze the strategic conceptions and aspirations of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey and to estimate the risks for all regional and global players, from Europe to the Western world.


It has been almost twenty years since Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, AKP (Justice and Development Party), took the reins of Turkey. After the first so-called « liberal » reforms, well received in the Western world, the illusions about the emergence of an « Islamic market democracy » have dissipated. Even before the Arab Spring and the hardening of the regional geopolitical context, the regime had embarked on an authoritarian turn and shifted its foreign policy, long seen as compatible with that of the United States. Unfortunate and contextual shift or « hidden agenda »? In Washington, a debate has already begun on the question of « Who lost Turkey? », despite the lack of an accurate and a proper answer.

Many questions are pending to be answered: Will Turkey be able to reconcile its « confrontational cooperation » with Russia with its membership in NATO? Does this « brutal agreement » between Ankara and Moscow prefigure a major re-arrangement in Eurasia, to the detriment of Western countries, or is it merely a tactical figure destined to fade away? Is a third Pan-Islamic path conceivable? Wouldn’t it be better to envisage a revival of Pan-turanism and the formation of a power center projecting force and influence in the core of ancient Turkestan? Would a defeat of Erdogan in 2023 make so many prospects look like fantasies?

These unknowns point to the lack of knowledge we have about Turkey and its deep roots. It is therefore important to know what politicians, strategists and geo-politicians in Turkey and the Turanian world are saying and writing. The purpose of this new project, which is presented by Thomas More Institute’s related resources such as strategic monitoring, notes and reports, videos, media interventions, social networks and events, is to follow the unfolding debate in the Turkish-speaking world, to provide analytical elements as well as to estimate potential impacts and risks for all regional and global actors, from Europe to the Western world.

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring of Turkey

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°10

Mai 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°9

April 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°8

April 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°7

March 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°6

March 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°5

February 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°4

February 2022, available in English and French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°3

January 2022, available in English and in French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°2

January 2022, available in English and in French • Read more

Strategic and Geopolitical Monitoring N°1

December 2021, available in English and in French • Read more

Publications and videos

Erdogan, la nouvelle Turquie et nous : anticiper la recomposition des alliances

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Institut Thomas More, Note 45, November 2020 • Read more

Où va la Turquie ? Où nous conduit-elle ?

Conference of October 15, 2020, with Ahmet Insel, Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier and Bertrand Viala • See the video

L’opération turque dans le Nord-Est syrien, sa portée militaire et ses perspectives géopolitiques

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Institut Thomas More, Points clés 21, October 2019 • Read more

Europe-Turquie : pour un partenariat géopolitique plutôt que l’intégration

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Institut Thomas More, Notes d’actualité 35, October 2015 • Read more

Medias

Les délicats équilibres en mer Noire bouleversés par la guerre

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, L’Express, comments, March 5, 2022 • En savoir +

In whose favor does the crisis in Kazakhstan upset the balance of power in Eurasia?

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, January 9, 2022 • Read more 

La Turquie et l’Ukraine : tenants et aboutissants de leur partenariat de défense

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Desk Russie, December 10, 2021 • Read more

UAE and Turkey… Promising relations?

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, November 28, 2021 • Read more

Is the Spanish-Turkish rapprochement a coincidence?

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, November 26, 2021 • Read more

Is the Ukrainian Crisis a new field of rivalry between Russia and Turkey?

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, October 30, 2021 • Read more

Erdogan exploite les passions populaires et les ressentiments à l’encontre de l’Occident

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, FigaroVox, October 26, 2021 • Read more

Which system brings Afghans to Turkey?

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, August 25, 2021 • Read more

Liberal interventionism model collapsed in Afghanistan

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, August 19, 2021 • Read more

Contradictions in Turkey’s European Perspective

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, July 13, 2021 • Read more

Turkey’s Black Sea opening

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, July 9, 2021 • Read more

Europeans lose confidence in the EU, see Turkey as main rival

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, June 21, 2021 • Read more

Turkey’s request to join the EU military project

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, June 18, 2021 • Read more

With what preparations is Turkey going to the NATO Summit?

Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, June 10, 2021 • Read more

Libye : « c’est un condominium russo-turc aux portes méridionales de l’Europe »

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, RFI, February 17, 2021 • Read more

L’éléphant noir

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Boulevard extérieur, December 14, 2020 •  Read more

La Turquie et l’Occident : l’« éléphant noir » dans la pièce

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Atlantico, December 10, 2020 • Read more

Présidentielle à Chypre-Nord : « On s’achemine vers une recomposition des alliances »

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, RFI, October 19, 2020 • Read more

Au-delà du Bassin levantin, l’avenir incertain de l’alliance turque

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, L’Opinon, September 13, 2020 • Read more

Pourquoi les frontières méridionales de l’Europe sont menacées

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier and Antonin Tisseron, FigaroVox, August 31, 2020 • Read more

Recep Tayyip Erdogan est-il l’ennemi de l’Europe ?

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Arte, August 27, 2020 • See the video

Recep Tayyip Erdogan veut-il enflammer la Méditerranée ?

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Arte, June 22, 2020 • See the video

Libye : la marche turque

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, commentaires, Le Point, June 2, 2020 • Read more

La Turquie et l’OTAN : une alliance sous hypothèque

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Diplomatie, n°103, March-April 2020 • Read more

L’eurasisme à la mode turque : errances et enseignements

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Boulevard extérieur, March 2, 2020 • Read more

 

Researchers

Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Research Fellow at the Thomas More Institute and director of the Turkey Program. He holds a degree in history and geography, a master’s degree in political science and a DEA in geography and geopolitics. Doctor in geopolitics, Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier is Senior Teacher of History-Geography and Fellow at the Institut Français de Géopolitique (Paris VIII University). He is the author of Géopolitique de l’Europe (Paris, PUF, 2020) and Le monde vue de Moscou. Géopolitique de la Russie et de l’Eurasie post-soviétique (Paris, PUF, 2020). His fields of research include the « greater Mediterranean » and overlap with Turkey, Turanian issues and geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia   
Selmin Seda Coskun, Project manager. She has a degree in International Relations. She completed a Master’s degree in International Political Economy and then obtained her doctorate at the Faculty of Political Science in Istanbul University. She started her career as an analyst for various diplomatic representations in Turkey. Concurrently, she worked as a professor in international relations at the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of MEF (Istanbul). Selmin Seda Coskun is currently an international columnist for Dokuz8News, a Turkish media. She is the author of Vekalet Savaşları ve Çözümü Zor Sorunlardaki Yeri. Lübnan İç Savaşı Örneği [The Proxy Wars in International Conflicts. The Example of the Lebanese Civil War] (Ankara, Nobel Bilimsel Eserler, 2021)