The Turkey program aims to analyze Turkey’s politico-strategic conceptions and ambitions, in order to assess their implications and risks for regional and global players, notably Europe and the Western world.
In September 2023, Turkey marked the centenary of the republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, whose reforms have shaped the identity of modern Turkey to create a modern, secular nation-state inspired by the industrialized nations of the West. In fact, two decades have passed since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) took the reins of Turkey and began to reshape the Kemalist republic. After the first so-called « liberal » reforms, which were initially well received in the Western world, illusions about the emergence of an « Islamic market democracy » faded in time. Even before the hardening of the regional geopolitical context, the regime had embarked on an authoritarian turn and shifted its foreign policy, long seen as compatible with that of the United States. But is this an unfortunate circumstance or a « hidden agenda »?
Many questions remain unanswered: a century after the proclamation of the Kemalist Republic, will Erdogan and AKP’s hypercracy create a « new Turkey »? Will Turkey lose the West? Will it be able to reconcile NATO membership with its « confrontational cooperation » with Russia and a despotic East? Does this « brutal entente » between Ankara and Moscow herald a great reordering of Eurasia to the detriment of the West, or is it a tactical figure doomed to wither? Is a pan-Islamic third way conceivable? Couldn’t one imagine a revival of pan-Turanism, forming a center of power projecting influence into the heart of ancient Turkestan? These unknowns illustrate how little we know about Turkey and its deepest roots. It is therefore worthwhile to note what politicians, strategists, and geopoliticians in Turkey and the Turkic world are stating and reporting. Since geopolitical analysis must take into account the figures who run Turkey, their psyche and world vision, the nature of the political system, and the reality of the internal balance of power.
The attempt to answer these questions is the purpose of our Turkey Program, which follows the debate as it unfolds in the Turkish-speaking world, provides elements of analysis, and assesses the consequences for regional and global actors, starting with Europe and the Western world, through monthly monitoring, notes and reports, videos, media interventions, roundtable meetings and social networks. This requires a close analysis of the clash of ideas and the struggle for political power in a country that is weakened and fragmented, but virtually powerful.
Monthly monitoring, available in English and French
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La Turquie, la mer Noire et les ramifications de la guerre en Ukraine
Mer Noire : Turquie et Russie en eaux troubles
Adhésion de la Suède à l’OTAN : la Turquie donne son accord
OTAN : l’adhésion de la Suède et la position de la Turquie au cœur des discussions
L’Occident face à la « question turque »
Élections turques : pourquoi personne n’a vu venir le succès d’Erdogan
Turquie : « Erdoganisme », suite ou fin ?
La Turquie à l’heure du vote
Le BTP, un acteur clé du système politique d’Erdogan
La mer Noire, l’autre front de la guerre en Ukraine
Turkey’s fault lines: Could more have been done to limit quake damage?
Poutine-Erdogan à Sotchi : quelles avancées attendre de cette rencontre ?
Pourquoi la mer Noire est-elle si stratégique ?
Turkey’s Mission Becomes More Difficult If Attacks on Ukrainian Ports Continue
Les relations entre la Russie et la Turquie : rétrospectives et perspectives
Les délicats équilibres en mer Noire bouleversés par la guerre
Russia’s geopolitical upheavals: As Europe’s eastern barrier weakens
Russia has something to say in the European security architecture!
Is Russia’s objective an attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty or a bluff?
In whose favor does the crisis in Kazakhstan upset the balance of power in Eurasia?
Selmin Seda Coskun, Dokuz8News, January 9, 2022 • Read more
Le Monde vu d’Istanbul. Géopolitique de la Turquie et du monde altaïque
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, PUF, May 2023
Publications and videos
Arménie-Azerbaïdjan : quel rôle joue la Turquie ?
Avec ou sans Erdogan ? Enjeux d’une élection décisive pour la Turquie et pour nous
After a month-long stalemate over the veto, has Turkey finally achieved its goal?
Erdogan, la nouvelle Turquie et nous : anticiper la recomposition des alliances
Où va la Turquie ? Où nous conduit-elle ?
L’opération turque dans le Nord-Est syrien, sa portée militaire et ses perspectives géopolitiques
Europe-Turquie : pour un partenariat géopolitique plutôt que l’intégration
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, Research Director at the Thomas More Institute. He holds a degree in history and geography, a master’s degree in political science and a DEA in geography and geopolitics. Doctor in geopolitics, Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier is Senior Teacher of History-Geography and Fellow at the Institut Français de Géopolitique (Paris VIII University). He is notably the author of Géopolitique de l’Europe (Paris, PUF, 2020), Le monde vue de Moscou. Géopolitique de la Russie et de l’Eurasie post-soviétique (Paris, PUF, 2020) and Le Monde vu d’Istanbul. Géopolitique de la Turquie et du monde altaïque (Paris, PUF, 2023). His fields of research include the « greater Mediterranean » and overlap with Turkey, Turanian issues and geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia •
Selmin Seda Coskun, Research Fellow at the Thomas More Institute. She obtained her doctorate at the Faculty of Political Science in Istanbul University (2019). She is the author of Vekalet Savaşları ve Çözümü Zor Sorunlardaki Yeri. Lübnan İç Savaşı Örneği [The Proxy Wars in International Conflicts. The Example of the Lebanese Civil War] (Ankara, Nobel Bilimsel Eserler, 2021) and is currently an international columnist for Dokuz8News, a Turkish media. Based in Paris, she is pursuing specialized studies on Geopolitics of Cyberspace at the French Institute of Geopolitics (Paris VIII University) and is lecturer in the Faculty of Political Science at the Catholic University of Paris •